BERLIN (CN) — Roughly 1.5 million Germans will make history in this weekend's European Parliament elections — for the first time ever, 16- and 17-year-olds in Germany will be able to vote in the EU election.
While Germany is only one of four nations — along with Austria, Belgium and Malta — to lower its EU voting age to 16, some argue the reform is common sense.
"The exclusion of young people from the age of 16 can no longer be justified today. Scientific studies show that there is no significant difference between 16-, 17- and 18-year-olds in terms of their ability to seriously discuss and evaluate socio-political issues," Silke Ruth Laskowski, a political scientist at the University of Kassel, told Courthouse News.
Germany lowered the voting age for European Parliament elections in 2022. Expanded youth participation could bring a bit of vigor to the nation's politics, which according to Eurostat has the fifth-highest median age in the European Union. Thirty-nine percent of voters in Germany's most recent federal election were 60 or older.
Though Laskowski argues freshly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds aren't a big enough group to determine the outcome of the election, the roughly 5 million young people who will be eligible to vote in their first EU election shouldn't be discounted.
Just how they'll shape German politics is harder to predict.
"They won't be voting as a unified block," she said.
"Many modern social and political issues, such as climate change, or gender equality, have become difficult to organize strictly along existing progressive and conservative lines. Even young people that tend to identify with more conservative parties tend to have a future-focused, progressive perspective," added Laskowski.
The Green Party and liberal Free Democrats were most successful among young people from 18 to 24 in the 2021 federal elections. Though recent polling among young Germans has produced varied results, it's safe to say that will change.
The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has grown increasingly attractive to many young people, even topping an April opinion poll of people between 14 and 29. The AfD has successfully targeted young potential voters via social media, especially TikTok. The party's 424,000 followers and 7.2 million likes are more than all other major German parties combined.
That the AfD and the center-right Christian Democrats are expected to improve their return among young Germans is a reflection of German politics at large.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats has had mixed results weathering a number of global crises, including eye-watering inflation and wars in Ukraine and Gaza, while struggling with internal ideological disagreements and tension around domestic issues.
Laskowski predicts that Germany's highly polarized political climate will drive people to the polls this weekend, which she sees as a welcome change.
"High voter turnout would be a success. In the past, voter turnout in EU elections in Germany hasn't been very high, typically somewhere between 60 and 70%. That really isn't much, especially considering how much influence the European Parliament now has on laws in its member states," she said.
Scholz's coalition might be less thrilled with high turnout. The opposition Christian Democrats are expected to capitalize on frustrations with the ruling government and dominate at the polls on June 6-9. Further opposition tends to come from the right of the ruling trio.
The Left Party has been reeling since its most popular politician, Bundestag member Sahra Wagenknecht, quit earlier this year to form her own party, which mixes anti-immigrant populism and left-leaning economic policies. European Parliament elections will indicate if her new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance party could be a viable contender in future domestic elections.
The far-right AfD have been enmeshed in a number of high-profile scandals, though its unclear whether this will be enough to turn off their voter base, which is particularly strong in the former East Germany.
A January report exposing the party's ties to a secret meeting with other elements of the extreme right to plan the forced migration of millions living in Germany sparked outrage and mass protests throughout the country. Internationally, European Parliament's far-right Identity and Democracy group pushed out the AfD for its links to Russia and China and minimizing of Nazi war crimes.
"This sends an interesting signal. It could be that they're doing this largely for tactical reasons and to improve their own electoral chances. But it could also be that the AfD's political direction has strayed too far for (Europe's other right-wing parties). From a European political perspective, the AfD has taken a unique position, which has led to their isolation. This has weakened the party within the EU Parliament," said Laskowski.
Sunday's vote will demonstrate if this weakened position damages their appeal to German voters, or simply reflects the particularly radical demands of Germany's far right. Potential success for the AfD with first-time voters would demonstrate that there is no short-term solution to Germany's far-right problem.
Regardless of how they vote, Germany's 16- and 17-year-olds have the opportunity for unprecedented political participation. Whether or not they take advantage of it could determine the future voting age for German federal elections.
"It could be seen as a test run. How much interest do young people have in participating in this election?" asked Laskowski.
Six states already allow 16-year-olds to vote in regional elections, and the ruling coalition supports dropping the voting age at the federal level.
"Young people from 16 years old will vote in the coming European Elections — a fantastic sign that we're taking young people seriously," said Lisa Paus, federal minister of Family Affairs, at a recent news event.
"Which is why I can't comprehend that 16- and 17-year-olds should be left out of federal elections. The young generation needs to directly participate in decision making processes, especially when it has to do with topics that will impact the future, like climate change or retirement," she continued.
Changing the federal voting age means changing the constitution — and would require a bigger majority than was needed to alter Germany's EU voting age. Conservative parties are against the shift, which Laskowski argues has more to do with oppositional politics than the issue itself.
"Given their role in the opposition, the Christian Democrats were against (reducing the voting age for federal elections). It's like a game — a rather dumb game, one must say, because it prevents reasonable politics," she said.
But if the Christian Democrats are as dominant as expected in the European elections — and that includes picking up a healthy portion of fresh-faced first-time voters — they might suddenly think lowering the voting age for domestic elections is a great idea. The European Parliament looks likely to get a dramatic makeover, and Germany may yet continue expanding its democracy.
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