(CN) — Iceland may have to future-proof its infrastructure and economy even more: Ongoing volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula, a southwestern region home to 70% of the population, may continue on and off for years, according to a study published Wednesday.
International scientists monitored Icelandic volcanoes for three years, analyzing seismic tomography imaging and the composition of lava samples, and found evidence that recurring eruptions may last for years, decades or centuries.
The team discovered that samples of lava rock from two volcanoes in the peninsula shared similar isotope components of oxygen, hydrogen and 50 different trace elements, which cemented a unique “fingerprint” of magma. This implies that the volcanoes have a shared magma storage zone below the peninsula.
Imaging of the earth’s interior based on local earthquakes also led the researchers to suggest there’s a reservoir about 5.5 to 7.5 miles into the earth’s crust. When its storage is fed by melting rock from the deeper mantle, it can cause eruptions that last for decades, said Ilya Bindeman, a volcanologist and earth sciences professor at the University of Oregon, in a press release announcing the study.
Iceland resides on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a tectonic plate boundary causing North America and Eurasia to push further apart. As these plates drift, hot rock from the earth’s mantle melts and travels toward the surface.
The research group, which published its findings in the journal Terra Nova, included collaborators from the University of Oregon, Uppsala University in Sweden, University of Iceland, Czech Academy of Sciences and University of California, San Diego.
Should their predictions turn true, the eruptions may disrupt the economy close to the capital of Reykjavík, according to the researchers. Tourism in Iceland made up 8.5% of its GDP in 2023, according to the country’s statistical body, a remarkable recovery for the sector after the Covid-19 pandemic closed international borders.
“The situation in the peninsula region is starting to look more gloomy,” Valentin Troll, a professor in the earth sciences department at Sweden’s Uppsala University and paper co-author, told Courthouse News.
At first, eruptions at "touristic volcanoes" in mostly remote areas — at a very small scale, enabling people to watch them — served the Icelandic economy well.
“But the eruptions have shifted now," Troll said, "including December last year, the eruptions have shifted towards the west, and that brings it very close to fundamental infrastructure and population centers.”
New era of seismic activity
After eight centuries, the Reykjanes peninsula experienced its first eruption in March 2021. More eruptions following in August 2022 and in July and December 2023, making volcanologists suspect a new era of seismic activity in the region had begun.
The activity has taken a toll already: Roughly 4,000 residents of Grindavik, a fishing village on the southwestern side of Iceland, evacuated their homes on Nov. 11, 2023, after multiple earthquakes damaged buildings and cracked open holes on roads — leading eventually to nearby eruptions that crippled the town.
“The government has purchased the majority of housing in Grindavik for 51.5 billion Icelandic crowns (around $370 million) because the town is uninhabitable," said Snorri Valsson, a project manager at the Icelandic Tourism Board, an independent authority under the Ministry of Culture and Business Affairs that closely monitors volcanic activities.
Other costs, Valsson said in an email to Courthouse News, will include building protective wall, civil protection and constructing roads. He estimated the total cost to be around $575 million.
Valsson drew a comparison to volcanic activity between 2021 and 2023. “The cost of the 5 eruptions in Sundhnúksgígaröð close to the town of Grindavik now in December 2023 – June 2024 has been considerably higher,” he said.
Troll, the Uppsala University professor, said it's unlikely that these eruptions will cause a giant ash cloud crippling European air traffic, as seen 14 years ago following eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull.
But this year, volcanic activity moved closer to the country’s main national airport in Reykjavík as hot lava edged closer to the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, which supplies power and hot water.
With all the bills that might come, Iceland's economy is expected to prevail, and its infrastructure remains stable, Troll said.
“I'm very impressed with Iceland’s resilience. It’s amazing,” Troll said. “Hopefully it will not be a complete disaster.”
Echoing the sentiment, Valsson said his country is prepared to take on the prospect of continued volcanic activity in the future.
“Obviously there are uncertainties involved, we are dealing with Mother Nature, but the civil protection plans have been developed through numerous events," he wrote. "Iceland is a close-knit resourceful society so we should be able to handle most, as we have done so far.”
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