California primaries set stage for November battles for Congress

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — Despite U.S. Representative Nancy Pelosi endorsing San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan as her successor, California state Senator Scott Wiener has been a favorite to replace the former House speaker for weeks.

Wednesday morning, the day following the state’s primary elections, Wiener’s advantage crystalized as he secured 44,521 votes to Chan’s 30,887, or 41.3% to 28.6%.

Both Democrats, Wiener and Chan appear headed to the general election as California’s jungle primary has the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to November.

“Tonight, the voters sent a clear message: They’re ready for a new vision on housing affordability, ICE accountability, smart guardrails on AI, single payer healthcare and affordable clean energy,” Wiener said in a post on X.

All results are incomplete and unofficial, and vote totals will change as ballots are received. The secretary of state must certify the election by July 10.

The race for the San Francisco seat was mirrored across California’s 52 congressional districts, each of which is up for election every two years.

Some of those races appeared similar to San Francisco’s contest, while others were more akin to a funhouse mirror.

The 1st Congressional District is one of the latter. The death of U.S. Representative Doug LaMalfa created an opening. The races to fill his remaining term, and for the next two-year term that starts in 2027, both occurred Tuesday.

However, the district maps were different for the special and primary elections, as Proposition 50 — the November 2025 ballot initiative that redrew the state’s districts to favor Democrats — made massive change to the North State district.

Assemblymember James Gallagher, a Yuba City Republican, garnered 65,915 votes, or 62.6%, to complete his former mentor’s term. State Senator Mike McGuire, a North Coast Democrat, got 18,575 votes, or 17.6%.

The new 1st District map includes areas closer to the ocean that are much bluer. In that race for the next two-year term, Gallagher also got the most votes with McGuire coming in second: 49,625 to 39,416, or 47.2% to 37.6%.

“The numbers are looking pretty good,” Gallagher told Courthouse News Tuesday night after the first results had trickled in. “It’s looking pretty good that we’ll blow it away on the special.”

Gallagher also expressed optimism about the regular election, as he claimed McGuire — a member of the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature — had the district drawn to favor himself.

“We’ll see,” Gallagher added. “We’re not final in those numbers.”

McGuire thanked voters in a Tuesday night statement.

“Come this November, we will flip this seat and give the people what they deserve — a fighter who never folds, a leader who will deliver for rural California, and a representative who will hold Donald Trump accountable,” he said.

The runoff for the special election is Aug. 4, though it won’t be needed if Gallagher secures over 50% of the special primary election vote.

The race for former U.S. Representative and gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell’s Bay Area seat had similar issues. Swalwell’s departure from politics also led to a special election for his remaining term. However, that special election for the 14th Congressional District won’t happen until June 16.

The election for the seat’s two-year term happened Tuesday. State Senator Aisha Wahab, a Silicon Valley Democrat, received 23,296 votes, or 34.3%. Former Dublin Mayor and Democrat Melissa Hernandez took 10,933 votes, or 16.1%.

Both candidates also are running in the special election.

“Thank you for all your support for the June 2nd election!” Wahab’s Facebook page posted Wednesday. “But it’s not over yet.”

Proposition 50 played havoc with a handful of races. U.S. Representative Kevin Kiley, who represents the 3rd District that runs along California’s eastern border, opted to leave the Republican Party and run as an unaffiliated candidate in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District against Democrats like former state Senator Richard Pan and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. The new district is more compact and dips into the Sacramento area.

Kiley took 28,362 votes to Republican Michael Stansfield’s 23,493 votes, or 26.8% to 22.2%.

Competition

For James Adams, a political science professor at UC Davis, primaries offer little information as to what California voters truly want.

“You select your leaders from the candidates you have, not the candidates you want,” Adams told Courthouse News.

However, Adams does see the potential for the state again becoming competitive.

That’s because Republican Steve Hilton and nonpartisan candidate Spencer Pratt had strong showings in the governor and Los Angeles mayor races, respectfully. Both received endorsements from Trump. Adams said competitive, electoral threats to Democrats could force that party to escape what he called its flat, stale and lethargic state.

“It may get the Democrats’ attention,” he added.

While that endorsement could be a boon for the primary election, it could act as a lead weight to Republicans come November, Adams said.

Pointing to Proposition 50, Adams said it appears to have accomplished its goal — getting Democrats four to five more congressional seats. However, he added a caveat, questioning whether that gain can be linked to the redistricting or to voter backlash to Trump.

Eric Schickler, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said Tuesday’s election results showed success for establishment Democrats.

Pelosi may have endorsed Chan, but Wiener is a strong candidate in the 11th District race, Schickler said. He also noted that two Democrats likely will advance to November in the 7th District race: U.S. Representative Doris Matsui and Sacramento Councilmember Mai Vang.

There are potential political storm clouds forming. The 6th Congressional District race currently has a Republican and a candidate with no party preference advancing to November, shutting out Democrats in a district designed to favor them.

However, California has many more uncounted ballots to process. The candidate in third place, Pan, trails second place by about 1,100 votes.

Schickler said he anticipates California’s general election will follow the expected national trend, meaning a likely Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Headed to November

A handful of California contests have garnered national attention.

U.S. Representative Adam Gray got 20,481 votes, or 40.9%, in his election to keep his 13th district seat. Former Stockton Mayor and Republican Kevin Lincoln got second with 14,577 votes, or 29.1%.

Gray was one of six Democrats who sided with Republicans to end last year’s federal government shutdown. Two Republicans sought to unseat him in the swing district that includes Modesto and Merced.

In the 22nd District race, Republican U.S. Representative David Valadao took 18,256 votes to Democrat Randy Villegas’ 12,234 — 44.5% to 29.8%.

Democratic Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains currently is third with 10,529. Bains is trying to unseat the incumbent in the district which sits roughly between Fresno and Bakersfield.

Bains has made headlines for bucking her party. She was the lone Democrat to oppose the bill that redrew the congressional districts under Proposition 50.

The 45th Congressional District in Orange County is another closely watched race.

Democratic U.S. Representative Derek Tran won 50,265 votes, or 49.7%, in his bid to keep his seat. Coming in second was Republican Chuong V. Vo, who took 16,465 votes, or 16.3%.

Two years ago, Tran ousted Republican Michelle Steel by some 600 votes. He faced five Republican contenders on Tuesday’s ballot.

“I am proud of this history-making campaign,” Tran said in a statement, adding: “I am guided by what is best for my community, my country and my conscience.”

The 48th District, at the state’s southern border, drew nine Democrats, two Republicans and one unaffiliated candidate in a race to succeed outgoing Republican U.S. Representative Darrell Issa.

Republican Jim Desmond took the most votes with 43,548, or 41.6%. Democrat Marni von Wilpert came in second with 20,358, or 19.5%.