Poll shows no favorite for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat as candidates weigh bid

Charleston, S.C. (CN) — The sudden death of Lindsey Graham this week opened the door for a frantic Republican primary ahead of November’s general election, but a new poll Thursday suggests none of the potential candidates would be a clear frontrunner in the race.

The first public pollby Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media of South Carolina shows U.S. Representative Ralph Norman leading among seven hypothetical candidates to replace the late senator, including businessman Mark Lynch, U.S. Representative Nancy Mace and Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Sixteen percent of respondents said in the poll, released Thursday, that they supported Norman, compared to 13% for Lynch and 10% each for Mace and Evette. Other potential candidates, including U.S. Representative Russell Fry, Governor Henry McMaster and Graham’s sister, Darline Graham, drew support from less than 10% of respondents.

Eighteen percent of respondents said they were undecided, however, and 5% said they support a candidate not identified in the poll.

Nearly half of respondents (41%) said an endorsement from President Donald Trump would make them more likely to support a candidate, but the same percentage said it would make no impact on their vote. About one-fifth of respondents said Trump’s endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.

Lynch, who lost to Graham in the GOP primary last month, is the only candidate so far to announce he will compete in the primary. The candidate filing period begins Tuesday. Mace and Norman, both of whom competed in the Republican governor’s primary, have also expressed interest.

Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University, said a shorter race would benefit candidates who have money remaining from past campaigns. But those candidates would also need to woo voters who may have already rejected them once, Vinson said.

“Nancy Mace finished way low in the first go-around,” Vinson said, referring to the governor’s primary race. “Pam Evette was blown out by Alan Wilson in the runoff. So those candidates would have to have a reset and articulate why in the world they should be our senator — other than they love Trump.”

Vinson said candidates faced other challenges in a short race, including finding space for events and recruiting volunteers to knock on doors in South Carolina’s sweltering summer heat.

“If you don’t already have a good network and ground game lined up, you really need to be able to do the advertising, mailing and word of mouth,” she said. “Because you don’t have a lot of time to recruit volunteers and campaign staff to do phone banking and things like that.”

Pollsters surveyed 500 residents on Tuesday and Wednesday. The poll’s margin of error is 4.3%.

The special primary election is scheduled for Aug. 11. If no candidate secures a majority of the votes, a runoff election would be held Aug. 19.

Darline Graham will serve out the remainder of her late brother’s Senate term until Jan. 3, 2027.

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